"If _____[I do this] _____, then _____[this]_____ will happen."

Sound familiar? It should. This formulaic approach to making a statement about what you "think" will happen is the basis of most science fair projects and much scientific exploration.

Following the scientific method, we come up with a question that we want to answer, we do some initial research, and then before we set out to answer the question by performing an experiment and observing what happens, we first clearly identify what we "think" will happen.

We make an "educated guess."

We write a hypothesis.

We set out to prove or disprove the hypothesis.

What you "think" will happen, of course, should be based on your preliminary research and your understanding of the science and scientific principles involved in your proposed experiment or study. In other words, you don't simply "guess." You're not taking a shot in the dark. You're not pulling your statement out of thin air. Instead, you make an "educated guess" based on what you already know and what you have already learned from your research.

If you keep in mind the format of a well-constructed hypothesis, you should find that writing your hypothesis is not difficult to do. You'll also find that in order to write a solid hypothesis, you need to understand what your variables are for your project. It's all connected!

If I never water my plant, it will dry out and die.

That seems like an obvious statement, right? The above hypothesis is too simplistic for most middle- to upper-grade science projects, however. As you work on deciding what question you will explore, you should be looking for something for which the answer is not already obvious or already known (to you). When you write your hypothesis, it should be based on your "educated guess" not on known data. Similarly, the hypothesis should be written before you begin your experimental procedures—not after the fact.

Hypotheses Tips

Our staff scientists offer the following tips for thinking about and writing good hypotheses.

• The question comes first. Before you make a hypothesis, you have to clearly identify the question you are interested in studying.
• A hypothesis is a statement, not a question. Your hypothesis is not the scientific question in your project. The hypothesis is an educated, testable prediction about what will happen.
• Make it clear. A good hypothesis is written in clear and simple language. Reading your hypothesis should tell a teacher or judge exactly what you thought was going to happen when you started your project.
• Keep the variables in mind. A good hypothesis defines the variables in easy-to-measure terms, like who the participants are, what changes during the testing, and what the effect of the changes will be. (For more information about identifying variables, see: Variables in Your Science Fair Project.)
• Make sure your hypothesis is "testable." To prove or disprove your hypothesis, you need to be able to do an experiment and take measurements or make observations to see how two things (your variables) are related. You should also be able to repeat your experiment over and over again, if necessary.

  To create a "testable" hypothesis make sure you have done all of these things:

  • Thought about what experiments you will need to carry out to do the test.
  • Identified the variables in the project.
  • Included the independent and dependent variables in the hypothesis statement. (This helps ensure that your statement is specific enough.
• Do your research. You may find many studies similar to yours have already been conducted. What you learn from available research and data can help you shape your project and hypothesis.
• Don't bite off more than you can chew! Answering some scientific questions can involve more than one experiment, each with its own hypothesis. Make sure your hypothesis is a specific statement relating to a single experiment.

Putting it in Action

To help demonstrate the above principles and techniques for developing and writing solid, specific, and testable hypotheses, Sandra and Kristin, two of our staff scientists, offer the following good and bad examples.

Hypotheses in History

Throughout history, scientists have posed hypotheses and then set out to prove or disprove them. Staff Scientist Dave reminds that scientific experiments become a dialogue between and among scientists and that hypotheses are rarely (if ever) "eternal." In other words, even a hypothesis that is proven true may be displaced by the next set of research on a similar topic, whether that research appears a month or a hundred years later.

A look at the work of Sir Isaac Newton and Albert Einstein, more than 100 years apart, shows good hypothesis-writing in action.

As Dave explains, "A hypothesis is a possible explanation for something that is observed in nature. For example, it is a common observation that objects that are thrown into the air fall toward the earth. Sir Isaac Newton (1643-1727) put forth a hypothesis to explain this observation, which might be stated as 'objects with mass attract each other through a gravitational field.'"

Newton's hypothesis demonstrates the techniques for writing a good hypothesis: It is testable. It is simple. It is universal. It allows for predictions that will occur in new circumstances. It builds upon previously accumulated knowledge (e.g., Newton's work explained the observed orbits of the planets).

"As it turns out, despite its incredible explanatory power, Newton's hypothesis was wrong," says Dave. "Albert Einstein (1879-1955) provided a hypothesis that is closer to the truth, which can be stated as 'objects with mass cause space to bend.' This hypothesis discards the idea of a gravitational field and introduces the concept of space as bendable. Like Newton's hypothesis, the one offered by Einstein has all of the characteristics of a good hypothesis."

"Like all scientific ideas and explanations," says Dave, "hypotheses are all partial and temporary, lasting just until a better one comes along."

That's good news for scientists of all ages. There are always questions to answer and educated guesses to make!

If your science fair is over, leave a comment here to let us know what your hypothesis was for your project.

Yesterday on the Science Buddies Blog, we talked about examples from the science community where scientists are misbehaving. From distorted findings to misrepresentation of data, recent science news abounds with stories of poor behavior among professional scientists.

While projects can and do sometimes fail, sometimes end up quite different than planned, and sometimes present findings that don't match initial hypotheses, you can give yourself the best chance for success by planning ahead.

Checklist for a Smooth Science Project

The following suggestions are designed to help increase your chances for a successful science fair project and a positive science fair experience.

Routine Project "Checks" Can Help!
Teachers can help ensure that projects are not put off until the last minute by grading each step of the process as a separate assignment and putting in place routine "checkpoints" along the way. For helpful information about structuring science fair projects so that progress is evaluated at several key points or in timed intervals (e.g., weekly), see the Science Buddies Science Fair Schedule Worksheet.
• Allow plenty of time. Waiting until the last minute to begin a science fair project is a bad idea. Even for a project that can be conducted in a short amount of time, you need to ensure you have time to perform adequate research. You also need to build in enough time so that if the project doesn't work the first time, you have the chance to perform the necessary steps again.
• Once you've selected your project, plan ahead. Be sure to carefully read the entire project as well as the materials list so that you have a good sense of what steps you'll be taking.
• Gather all of the required materials as soon as possible so that you have everything on hand. Be sure and allow extra time if you are ordering materials. While substitutions are sometimes possible, don't substitute unless you have to—and unless you are certain the substitution is viable. In some cases, it is best to consider changing projects if you find that you can't get the required materials.
• Build time into the schedule to do a "dry run," in case there are unforeseen problems that can be addressed and corrected. An inexperienced cook probably wouldn't try a difficult recipe for the first time when preparing an important meal. Too many things can go wrong! A science project is no different. If your timeline allows it, doing a "trial run" of the project can help make the final project run more smoothly.
• Carefully follow instructions. Make sure that you follow your experimental procedure step by step to avoid missing something important that could make or break the project. You don't want to doom your results because you thought you needed to add "X" amount and added "y" or because you thought you needed to water your seeds on day "9" when it was really supposed to be on day "3."
• Be sure and record all of your steps in your lab notebook. If something goes wrong, having thorough notes can help you troubleshoot later. You will also need your notes to help prepare your final report.
• In the end, if the experiment did not work, and you can't fix it, be honest. Explain what you were hoping to observe and what you did observe. Explain what went wrong and what you feel might account for the results you saw. In other words, what are the possible causes for the project not working?
  

No matter what: do not fake data. Doing so is cheating and fraud—and it's against the spirit of the science fair.

It Happens

Even with careful planning, sometimes a project "goes wrong." It happens to scientists in every field. Sometimes, what went wrong can lead to new understanding, a new study, or even an unexpected discovery.

Stay tuned for some hands-on tips from our staff scientists that can help you troubleshoot what may be happening if your project isn't working.

In recent months, the news has been riddled with stories about professional scientists behaving poorly. In November 2009, a hacker pirated and circulated hundreds of email messages that spawned what has become known as "Climategate,", a scandal which allegedly involves the systematic and deliberate misrepresentation of statistical data regarding global warming. On the heels of Climategate, the British medical journal Lancet this month retracted a scientific paper because of fraudulent data regarding a link between immunizations and autism, and the American publication Science recently placed a paper under suspicion until it receives additional data. In other news, claims regarding the rapid melting of Himalayan glaciers have been exposed as "speculative."

These examples from the scientific world are disheartening. They point to a certain level of ethical demise where results that "fit" expected or desired findings are more important than the scientific quest for truth. In each case, faulty findings and misrepresentation of data have had significant impact upon popular thinking and even upon economic planning and spending.

For teachers and students, these examples can be confusing. If the goal of experimentation and research is to test hypotheses, to explain things, to uncover what happens under certain circumstances, and to answer questions that can lead to new knowledge and further discovery, then why lie about what the data shows?

Why Falsify?

Scientists are human. It is natural to want to be right. It can be hard to discover in subsequent trials that early findings were not as conclusive as initially believed. It can be hard to have to "qualify" data or suggest that something that seemed breakthrough early on maybe wasn't. It can hard to admit that something didn't turn out as expected.

The pressure to publish research and findings can contribute to these problems. In the rush to put out new materials, "it can be tempting to take short cuts, to rush data that isn't fully analyzed out the door, or, worst of all, to fabricate data," says Sandra Slutz, Science Buddies lead staff scientist.

Students face similar time constraints and pressure, and sometimes students think the only way to get a good grade on a science project is for the project to show exactly what they set out to show. It is important for teachers, students, parents, and those involved in science fairs to create an environment where solid research and testing, where adherence to the scientific method, and where a spirit of enthusiastic investigation is encouraged — even if a project, in the end, doesn't turn out as expected.

What students stand to learn from a science project that is conducted properly from start to finish far outweighs the importance of the data fitting the student's original hypothesis or supporting a known scientific principle.

An Honest Fair

For teachers, parents, and students, stories of scientific fraud, deception, and misrepresentation in the science community are warning signs and offer concrete examples for talking constructively about the value of science fair projects, about "why" we conduct scientific experiments and "why" schools hold science fairs.

A science fair project is supposed to be a learning experience, and teachers and parents need to work together to ensure that the experience is a positive one. Unfortunately, whether you are a middle school student or a professional scientist, experiments don't always turn out the way that you want! That doesn't, however, mean that you should alter your results, ignore something important that happened, or pretend that things turned out differently than they did. Ultimately, you may not prove your hypothesis. But that doesn't mean that your science fair project had no merit!

If at First You Don't Succeed

It happens. Experiments do not always turn out the way you expect or want. Sometimes, it is because something avoidable went wrong. You can learn from that and try again or alter your procedures in the future. Sometimes, it is hard to tell "what" went wrong. Sometimes, the data simply doesn't match up to expectations.

On the bright side, you can learn a lot from what goes wrong with a science project. Scientific discovery, in fact, is often a one-step-forward-two-steps-back process. If you love the area of science you've chosen for your project, spending time troubleshooting what may have happened and finding either a new approach or a revised method for working with the topic can turn into a viable project for your next science fair.

Donna Hardy, an Ask an Expert volunteer from Bio-Rad, recently reassured a student and parent that had run into problems with a cabbage cloning experiment, "With science projects, the important thing is the science and the experiment, not necessarily the results. Your son followed the protocol, set up the experiment, and obtained some results. Not necessarily the results he was expecting, but there were results."

Be open, too, to what "what went wrong" suggests. You might find that unexpected results can lead your research or project in an entirely new direction.

As Amber Hess, a Science Buddies volunteer and Expert in the Ask an Expert forums notes: "My best project came about from a mistake I made in a different project. That's also how the microwave oven was invented!"

Indeed, observations that led to the development of the microwave oven started with an unexpected mess—a chocolate bar that melted in the pocket of Percy Spencer, an American engineer working with magnetrons for Raytheon. The melted chocolate bar demonstrated a side-effect of the magnetrons: their heating properties. Spencer went on to experiment with popcorn and then eggs. It wasn't where he started, but it led to a discovery that changed the face of the modern kitchen!

Just imagine if Spencer hadn't realized the potential in re-directing his research based on the melted chocolate bar!

As Sandra notes, "Every scientist, from famous Nobel prize winners to laboratory technicians in their first job, have had an experiment fail. Actually they've had a lot of experiments fail. And that's okay! It is simply part of the process. What differentiates the good scientists from the rest is what they do next. The truly horrible ones make up results, the bad ones simply give up and move to a new question, and the good scientists figure out why the project failed, implement a solution, and try again... and again... and again until it works."

Stay tuned for a checklist of ways to get your science project started off on the right foot to give yourself the best chance for success. Check back, also, for more suggestions from our staff scientists and experts regarding what to do... when a project doesn't work and how to troubleshoot what may have gone wrong.

Journals and log books are used by researchers and writers in almost every field.

• To make note of "what we do as we do it," we keep a record.
• To ensure we don't forget what happened on this day, we jot down a quick note.
• To remind ourselves later of the affect of this agent on that substance, we document.

A quick look at samples from the over 13,000 pages recorded (often in reverse, mirror-image cursive) by Leonardo Da Vinci shows the range of materials that can appear in a notebook - and the ways in which such notes can later be referenced to track a project or idea. A good journal or lab notebook becomes a historical reference for projects and can help shape future research.

No matter what size project you are working on, you want to make a habit of keeping good records. If treated properly and used diligently, a lab notebook can make a big difference in the process of putting together a final project, a report, or a presentation on results.

When you sit down to write up your project , it will be much easier and less time-consuming if you have thorough and detailed notes of every stage of the process rather than relying on your "memory" of what happened at various points along the way.

Every project differs, so how you approach setting up your book will have a lot to do with your specific project, what kinds of lab-testing you are doing, how many trials you are running, how frequently you measure and collect your data, and even what kinds of background research you are conducting.

There are, however, tried and true practices that can make a difference in how useful your lab notebook is when you get ready to right up your project.

The team of scientists at Science Buddies put together the following set of tips and tricks for using and keeping a lab notebook.

Picking a notebook:

• No sticky notes! A pile of loose paper or sticky notes won't work for a lab notebook. Use a good quality "bound" notebook, so that pages can't be lost, shuffled out of order, or pulled loose.
• Page numbers help. Use a notebook with pre-numbered pages or number the pages yourself. This allows you to easily reference data on other pages via page number.

  
  Tip: Before you start writing in a new lab notebook, go through and number all pages in a consistent location (the top right-hand corner, for example).

Organizing your notebook:

• Claim your book. Put your name, address, phone, email, or other contact information on the first page. It does happen that notebooks and journals get dropped, accidentally left behind, or lost. A lost lab notebook can be frustrating and can really set your project behind. If you've included your contact information, the person who finds your lab notebook can contact you to give it back.
  
• Organize as you go. Label the second page of your notebook "Table of Contents." As you make entries in your lab notebook, write the page numbers and a description of the experiment or data in the table of contents for easy reference later.
• Neatness counts. All entries should be neat, legible, and complete. Many times you will have to refer back to data that you recorded a while ago. You do not want to be confused by what you wrote because you were in a hurry and made a sloppy entry.

• Keep it in order. Be sure and date each entry you make in your notebook. The entries should be sequential, but dating entries is standard practice.
• Beware the smear! Use a smudge-proof pen when making entries. If you make a mistake in your notebook, simply cross it out and initial below the crossed out section.

When and what to write in your notebook:

• It all counts! Your lab notebook is like a science diary. Write down all of your hypotheses, questions to look up later, and background research. As you are working, write down all your experimental observations or thoughts, no matter how small or insignificant they may seem to you at the time. The little detail you don't record might be exactly what you need to know later -- or what will help you answer a teacher or science fair judge's question!
• Who said that? Write down the names, phone numbers, or email addresses of people you have contacted for your experiment.
• Never leave home without it. Always have your notebook with you when doing your experiments.
• Start fresh. Open your notebook to a blank page before you start experimenting during each new lab session. You do not want to start an experiment and then have to stop because you have nowhere to record data.
• A picture can be worth a 1000 words. Draw pictures of your experimental set-up, experimental results, and so on in your notebook. You can also take photographs and paste them in your notebook.
• Include the extras. You can add printouts and other documentation. Just remember to tape or glue in the material in the proper chronological location. Tip: Add notes describing the attached data so it is clear later "why" you've included the material.
• Don't wait. Record data right away in your lab notebook. Don't rely on your memory because you can forget what happened when you performed the experiment.
• Only in the notebook! Don't be tempted to record data anywhere else but in your lab notebook. Scraps of paper can be lost along with important data.
• Be thorough. Include enough information about what you are doing so that you, or someone else, could reproduce your procedure.
• Add it up. Whether you are figuring out how much of a reagent to add or analyzing your data, make sure to do all your math calculations in your lab notebook. This way if something goes wrong later, you can go back and double check to see if you made a simple arithmetic error.
• Don't jump around. If you need to skip pages between entries for a project, add notes saying where the next entry can be found and where the previous entry occurs.
• Track edits. If you need to go back to a page to change or correct something, use a different colored ink and initial and date the changes.

Special thanks to Sandra, Michelle, Kristin, and Dave for helping pull together their best tips and tricks for using a lab notebook!

Advanced Recordkeeping

Want one more tip that professional researchers and scientists use? Do not leave large parts of pages blank. If part of a page is blank, you might be tempted to scrawl an unrelated note in the blank space later (or someone else might pick up your notebook and make a note in a blank space). When you finish taking notes during a lab session or after recording data on a given day, draw a diagonal line through the unused portion of the page. This clearly marks any "unused" sections. You'll know later that no data or notes should appear in those spaces as you review your work.

Special Giveaway for Teachers

We are giving one lucky classroom a box of 24 lab notebooks, courtesy of Carolina Pad. To be entered in the drawing, please leave a comment at Facebook in our "Lab Notebooks Giveaway" post (from January 7, 2010). Please include your name and school name. If you have a favorite lab notebook tip, please share it! We'll draw one winning teacher's name from all entries received by January 21. (Be sure that we can contact you via Facebook so that we can reach you for shipping information if your name is chosen!) (Terms: Open to US teachers only. K-12 classrooms.)

(Note: Maximum of one entry per person. Giveaway limited to teachers.)

Share Your Tips!

Do you have favorite tricks of your own? Leave a comment to share your favorite lab notebook practices so that others can take advantage of what you're doing right!