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Project Summary
| Difficulty | 8 |
| Time required | Average (about one week) |
| Prerequisites | Basic knowledge of Microsoft Excel and statistics |
| Material Availability | Readily Available |
| Cost | Very Low (under $20) |
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Sponsor
| Sponsored by a generous grant from Motorola |
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Objective
The objective of this project is to determine if baseball players and/or teams are "streaky" or if their ups and downs can be explained simply by random luck.
Introduction
If a player goes 0-for-20, does that mean anything? Using probability theory, how often would you expect a .275 hitter to go 0-for-20? How much can streaks be explained by luck alone, and how much are they affected by a player? As for teams, do their runs of wins and losses mean anything?
Terms, Concepts and Questions to Start Background Research
Probability theory
Experimental Procedure
Select a group of regular players and get their game logs from ESPN.com. Look at moving averages of their batting average over 2, 3, 4 or 5 games. Estimate the probability that they would exhibit this performance based on their career and season statistics. Or do the same for teams.
Variations
For the team study, adjust their probability of winning by their opponents winning percentage.
- For more science project ideas in this area of science, see Pure Mathematics Project Ideas.
Credits
Gabriel Desjardins
Last edit date: 2005-08-31 15:03:26
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