What Makes a Team's Winning Percentage Deviate from the Pythagorean Relationship?
| Difficulty | |
| Time Required | Average (6-10 days) |
| Prerequisites | Basic knowledge of Microsoft Excel and statistics |
| Material Availability | Readily Available |
| Cost | Very Low (under $20) |
Abstract
What makes a winning team? Getting all the best players? Good coaches? Good chemistry? This project will show you how you can use math to help you test your hypothesis about what makes a winning team.Objective
The objective of this project is to determine why teams win many more or fewer games than they're expected to based on runs/goals/points scored and allowed.
Credits
Gabriel Desjardins
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Last edit date: 2013-01-10
Introduction
The Pythagorean relationship is a fundamental one in sports: it correctly predicts the records of 98% of all teams. But in 2% of cases, it fails. Why does it fail?
Terms and Concepts
Pythagorean Relationship, Bill James
Experimental Procedure
Find teams that deviated substantially from their expected Pythagorean record (this information is available for baseball teams on www.baseball-reference.com). Then look at their situational statistics (this information is available on ESPN.com) and determine what they did that resulted in more or fewer wins than they otherwise should have had. Determine what the teams have in common.
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I Did This Project!
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