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Project Summary
| Difficulty | 4 |
| Time required | Very Short (a day or less) |
| Prerequisites | None |
| Material Availability | Readily Available |
| Cost | Very Low (under $20) |
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Sponsor
| Sponsored by a generous grant from Motorola |
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Abstract
People often draw conclusions from a small number of observations, but how easy is it to draw the wrong conclusion? Here is a simple project that shows the importance of making enough observations before making a prediction.Objective
The objective of this project is to determine what happens when a test with two equally-likely outcomes is performed only a small number of times.
Introduction
A lot of times, people use very small sample sizes to evaluate the likelihood of an event taking place. But does the most likely outcome occur if an experiment is only performed a few times? How easy is it to draw the wrong conclusion if an unlikely event occurs?
Terms, Concepts and Questions to Start Background Research
Bernoulli trials
Bibliography
http://www.math.wichita.edu/history/topics/probability.html#bern-trials
Experimental Procedure
- Get any coin. Flip it three times. Record the results. Repeat twenty times.
- Flip it five times and record the results. Repeat this twenty times.
- Then flip it seven times, recording the results. Repeat twenty times.
- What are the most common sequences that result? Did you ever get an unlikely sequence? How does the result change as you flip three, five or seven times?
Variations
Show, using Bernoulli trials, what the likelihood of each outcome is.
- For more science project ideas in this area of science, see Pure Mathematics Project Ideas.
Credits
Gabriel Desjardins
Last edit date: 2006-01-03 16:27:39
Career Focus
If you like this project, you might enjoy exploring careers in Pure Mathematics.
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Statistician Statisticians use the power of math and probability theory to answer questions that affect the lives of millions of people. They tell educators which teaching method works best, tell policy-makers what levels of pesticides are acceptable in fresh fruit, tell doctors which treatment works best, tell builders which type of paint is the most durable. They are employed in virtually every type of industry imaginable, from engineering, manufacturing, and medicine to animal science, food production, transportation, and education. Everybody needs a statistician! |
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