Abstract
The past few years have histories of extremely powerful and dangerous storms. Storms have also become more numerous over the last few years. To investigate potential effects of climate on hurricane number and strength, in this project you will study the effects of El Niño on hurricanes.Objective
The goal of this project is to study the historic relationship between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the number and strength of hurricanes, either in the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans.
Introduction
Is global warming causing an increase in hurricane intensity? Consider the following causal chain:
Note: However, we are still working on this last link. The statement that "greenhouse warming is" cannot conclusively be linked to the "contributing to the global tropical sea surface temperature increase" yet. There are numerous papers just beginning to make this link, but climatologists predict that extreme events, like hurricanes, will be stronger and more frequent as the man-made climate warming increases. (For more information, see GFDL, 2006.) The timing of this increase is important. Many scientists are finding evidence that support the assertion that we are already seeing this increase in the stronger and more frequent extreme events, due to man-made causes (i.e., fossil fuel emissions.)
The story may be even more complex! Greenhouse warming may also influence hurricanes through changes in pre-existing natural cycles (e.g. El Niño), atmospheric circulation patterns, and ocean mixed layer depth. More research is needed on the global climate dynamics of hurricanes.
Multi-decadal Fluctuations in Atlantic Hurricane Activity
Historically, scientists have thought that the Atlantic hurricane activity has exhibited very strong multi-decadal variability, with alternating periods lasting several decades of generally above-normal or below-normal activity. These multi-decadal fluctuations in hurricane activity result nearly entirely from differences in the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes forming from tropical storms first named in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea.
Hurricane seasons during 1995-2004 have averaged 13.6 tropical storms, 7.8 hurricanes, 3.8 major hurricanes, and with an average Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index (NWS, 2006) of 159% of the median. NOAA classifies all but two of these ten seasons (El Niño years of 1997 and 2002) as above normal, and six of these years as hyperactive. If the 2005 season verifies as predicted, it will be the seventh hyperactive season in the last 11 years.
In contrast, during the preceding 1970-1994 period, hurricane seasons averaged 9 tropical storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1.5 major hurricanes, with an average ACE index of only 75% of the median. NOAA classifies twelve (almost one-half) of these 25 seasons as being below normal, only three as being above normal (1980, 1988, 1988), and none as being hyperactive.
What is the relationship between hurricanes and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? In general, warm ENSO episodes are characterized by an increased number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the eastern Pacific and a decrease in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.
To help answer these questions NOAA has developed the Historical Hurricane Tracks tool. This interactive mapping application allows students to search and display maps using Atlantic Basin and East-Central Pacific Basin tropical cyclone data (NOAA, 2005). In this project, you will use the Historical Hurricane Tracks tool to gather information about the number and strength of past hurricane seasons. You will use this data to see if there is a correlation between ENSO and the number and/or strength of hurricanes in either the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans.
Terms, Concepts and Questions to Start Background Research
To do this project, you should do research that enables you to understand the following terms and concepts:
Questions
Bibliography
Materials and Equipment
To do this experiment you will need the following materials and equipment:
Experimental Procedure
Use the Historical Hurricane Tracks tool to gather hurricane data to study the hurricane/climate connection. Here's how:
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Variations
Credits
Written by Frank Niepold, Climate Education Fellow, NOAA Climate Program Office
Edited by Andrew Olson, Ph.D., Science Buddies
Last edit date: 2006-08-15 17:13:13
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