Choose a Topic to Begin
Each Notebook in the Library below contains examples and descriptions of different pandemic scenarios. And, each one contains a Sandbox where you can Ask, "What If?" and run your own simulations, changing any parameter you wish.
News reports are often full of speculation about new COVID-19 variants. What exactly is a virus variant? Why do scientists track variants? Does it matter which COVID-19 variant is in a community? Explore these questions and run your own simulations to compare different COVID-19 variants in this notebook.
What is a disease’s basic reproduction number, R₀, and how does it impact communities and individuals? How might differences in R₀ alter the local duration or intensity of a COVID-19 epidemic? Explore these questions and run your own COVID-19 simulations, using a range of R₀ values, in this notebook.
How can herd immunity prevent outbreaks? What does it take to reach the herd immunity threshold naturally? Does the herd immunity threshold change from one disease to another? Explore these questions and run your own local herd immunity scenarios in this notebook.
Teachers, an accompanying lesson plan, complete with student worksheets and standards alignment, is available for this Notebook.
How do vaccines change the outcomes of an outbreak? What will happen if a strong vaccine is developed but few people get it? Explore these questions and run your own vaccination scenarios in this Notebook.
Teachers, an accompanying lesson plan, complete with student worksheets and standards alignments, is available for this Notebook.
“Flu season” is something we deal with every winter. Such cyclical or seasonal outbreaks of an infectious disease can occur for a variety of reasons. This Notebook explores cyclical outbreaks enabled when the natural immunity to a disease has a short duration.
This is the best place to start with SimPandemic!
Learn about the forces driving a pandemic
See the differences between urban and rural areas
Change the course of the pandemic in the Sandbox
In this DIY Notebook, all you have is a Sandbox and the FAQ. We give you default values for Population Statistics and COVID-19 Disease Characteristics. Otherwise, there is no guidance and no explanations. It's all up to you!
A short video uses SimPandemic coronavirus simulations to explain some of the arguments for and against reopening. Use SimPandemic to explore further.
How SimPandemic Works
SimPandemic helps you learn how a pandemic evolves by visualizing different scenarios in graphs that depict infections, symptomatic individuals, deaths, and acquired immunity, as well as economic output. You can easily see the forces that drive the pandemic.
The simulator at the heart of SimPandemic uses an agent-based model to simulate the coronavirus disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus as it moves through the population. It creates a virtual world of 100,000 simulants whose sole functions in life are to remain healthy or become infected, and if they are adults, to perform work. Adult simulants create economic output with their work, so long as they are not symptomatic, quarantined, or out of work because of social distancing business closure. If infected, simulants are able to infect others. When they are no longer infectious and the disease runs its course, they become immune or die. For every day of the simulation, SimPandemic updates the status of every simulant based on approximately 100 parameters, including population statistics, disease characteristics, and interventions to fight the pandemic.
The simulator also calculates an economic indicator, Economic Output, that ranges from 0 to 100%, enabling SimPandemic to visualize how various interventions impact the spread of the coronavirus disease and sometimes spillover to affect the economy. The objective of SimPandemic is simple: Save lives, save jobs!