Measles: How to Defeat a Debilitating Virus

Summary

Areas of Science

Pandemics – COVID-19
Human Biology & Health

Difficulty

Method

Scientific Method

Time Required

Short (2-5 days)

Credits

Teisha Rowland, PhD, Science Buddies

Science Buddies is committed to creating content authored by scientists and educators. Learn more about our process and how we use AI.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXYzjSLv-JY

Abstract

Measles is one of the most contagious viruses in the world, but there are differences in how the virus can spread within communities. Some communities may be able to prevent the disease from spreading, whereas others could experience a rapidly spreading, overwhelming outbreak. How does immunity and vaccination in a population of people affect how measles spreads? To answer this, this science project can be completed using the Measles: Defeating a Debilitating Virus Notebook with SimPandemic.

Scientists use a mathematical term called R₀ to measure how contagious a virus is. R₀ (pronounced “R naught”) is the basic reproduction number of an infectious disease; R₀ quantifies how many people, on average, one infected person could infect if people have not been vaccinated or do not have any prior exposure, and therefore no immunity to the disease. For example, for influenza (i.e., the seasonal flu), the R₀ is around 1 to 2, meaning that a person who has the flu can, on average, infect one to two other people. For COVID-19, the R₀ is around 2 to 3. For measles, the R₀ is around 12 to 18, which arguably makes it the virus with the highest known R₀ value.

Measles can be easily transmitted, or passed from one person to another, in many ways, including through touching a contaminated surface (i.e., one with contaminated saliva or mucus) or through the air (such as from sneezing, coughing, or even just talking). While measles includes a distinctive rash (shown in Figure 1), people are contagious for four days before developing this distinct symptom, and then for four days afterwards. While most people recover, having measles can be serious and even deadly.

Image Credit: Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and Prevention / Public Domain

Figure 1. Measles includes a distinctive rash, such as shown here on the skin of a patient three days after being infected with measles.

A vaccine can prevent measles infection. Receiving both doses of the childhood measles vaccine offers lifelong protection and decreases a person’s lifelong risk of being infected by measles to 3%.

Without measles immunity, or with decreased vaccination rates, can health officials move quickly enough to mount a proper response and prevent a measles outbreak?

To answer these types of questions and others, for this science project, use the Measles: Defeating a Debilitating Virus Notebook with SimPandemic. When you get to the Sandbox portion of the Notebook, you can run your own simulations to explore questions like:

• How much immunity is needed to prevent an outbreak from happening (also called the herd immunity threshold)
• How do measles outbreaks compare to COVID-19 outbreaks? For example, how does the speed at which a measles outbreak spreads compare to the speed at which a COVID-19 outbreak spreads? How might this difference affect how health officials can successfully respond to these different types of outbreaks?
• If a child misses one of the two doses of the measles vaccine, how does this increase their risk of contracting measles?
• How can efforts to fight an outbreak affect a measles outbreak?

When comparing the different simulations you run, consider looking at parameters like:

• On what day does an outbreak pass 1000 simultaneously infected individuals?
• What is the peak number of simultaneous infections?
• When does the peak of the outbreak occur?
• How long does the outbreak last?
• What is the total number of individuals infected?
• Do hospitals exceed their capacity?

When analyzing the data, it is best to run each scenario multiple times and calculate an average. This is because in the simulations, just like in the real world, many events are based on chance (e.g., who infects who and when). The element of chance can lead to differences in the outcomes. Usually, these differences are fairly small and the trend remains stable, but some factors, especially those involving just a few people, have a larger element of chance.

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The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UNSDGs) are a blueprint to achieve a better and more sustainable future for all.

This project explores topics key to Good Health and Well-Being: Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages.

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